WiMax, the wireless broadband technology, may find its place serving emerging markets without a fixed-line infrastructure rather than providing blanket coverage in industrialised countries.
WiMax, the wireless broadband technology, may find its place serving emerging markets without a fixed-line infrastructure rather than providing blanket coverage in industrialised countries.
At a WiMax Congress in Amsterdam, executives said the technology had potential in emerging markets -- Africa, for instance, has only 35 million fixed telephone lines for almost a billion people -- but also in rural areas of industrialised countries with poor wired broadband service.
The WiMax Forum, the main industry group, estimated that about 3.6 million people worldwide used WiMax last year, a tiny figure compared with the roughly 200 million users of third-generation mobile phone networks that also offer wireless Internet access.
But the WiMax Forum forecasts that the number of subscribers will grow to 100 million by 2012.
Analysts, however, are sceptical of industry claims that WiMax also has a bright future providing urban users in industrialised countries with mobile Internet access -- areas already well-served by mobile networks whose operators will likely use competing technology LTE to upgrade.
Analysts note that building a WiMax network in developed countries is akin to launching a new mobile operator, with many costs -- such as the acquisition of sites for base stations and the core network -- similar to those a mobile carrier incurs.
Big-spending business customers will likely wait as WiMax networks initially have limited coverage and operators will need time to offer roaming access abroad.
"The only real market opportunities we are seeing are in emerging markets lacking wired infrastructure, or in rural areas of developed countries," said Pierre Carbonne, consultant for mobile technologies at Idate.
SHARPER FOCUS
As previous expensive forays into new technologies have shown -- such as the billions of euros spent by European carriers to acquire licences for third-generation mobile phone networks -- sound business cases are crucial to success.
Offers with a sharp focus could be successful in developed countries, Redline's Suitor said.
Suitor said a typical WiMax network in Africa to cover a dozen cities may cost about $20 million to build and could break even after four to five years with less than 1 percent of the total population of the country taking up the service.
Carriers pursuing narrower goals, such as plugging a gap in their service offering, could break even after as little as six months, he said.
In emerging markets, many operators will likely build "fixed WiMax" networks where users have to be stationary to get service -- an option for consumers or small enterprises to get Internet access where fixed-line connections are not available.
Such networks are cheaper than those designed to compete with mobile carriers and also an option for rural areas in industrialised countries -- both Redline and Motorola announced deals at the Amsterdam congress to supply WiMax networks in rural areas of France.
"The broadband market today is about 250 to 300 million lines, and there's a potential to go to much more than 1 billion," Tzvika Friedman, Chief Executive of Alvarion, a leading WiMax equipment maker, told Reuters.
The biggest remaining issue for emerging market networks is the cost of the equipment needed at consumers' homes, said Mohammad Shakouri, board member of the WiMax Forum.
The price for such hardware had already dropped from $1,000 per customer three years ago to $200-$250 today and would fall further to around $150 by the end of the year, he said.
"India said to us: if you can make the price below $75, expect 200 million devices alone in India." (Editing by David Cowell)
0 comments:
Post a Comment